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From Kabul(Afghanistan) to Kyiv(Ukraine<\/span>): Matin Bek\u2019s Analysis \u2014 Ukraine Is on the Path to Repeating Afghanistan\u2019s Fate<\/p>\n \n On the eve of Ukraine\u2019s negotiations with Russia, mediated by the United States, Abdul Matin Bek, a former senior Afghan government official, has published an article in The Cipher Brief, warning that the U.S. may be repeating the same strategic mistakes it made in Afghanistan in the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n \n Matin Bek, former Chief of Staff to the President of Afghanistan and a member of the Afghan peace negotiation team with the Taliban, argues that diplomatic mismanagement, excessive dependence on foreign aid, and sidelining of allies could lead the war in Ukraine toward disaster.<\/p>\n \n \u201cI was worried from the beginning that Ukraine might follow the same path as Afghanistan: generous support at first, followed by political fatigue, and eventually abandonment,\u201d Bek states.<\/p>\n \n He emphasizes that a one-sided focus on military assistance without serious diplomatic efforts risks institutionalizing dependency. He criticizes the Biden administration for choosing to send weapons rather than using its influence to bring the war to an end.<\/p>\n \n Bek says, \u201cThe absence of a serious diplomatic initiative left the question unanswered: Could there have been a solution before the crisis intensified?\u201d<\/p>\n \n In his article, Bek identifies three key similarities between Afghanistan\u2019s peace process and Ukraine\u2019s current situation:<\/p>\n 1. Sidelining Legitimate National Governments from Negotiations 2. Undermining Allies in the Media 3. Misuse of Leverage \n Drawing from Afghanistan\u2019s experience, Bek offers two key recommendations for the United States:<\/p>\n 1. Negotiations must center on the Ukrainian government and its people. 2. The tone and conduct toward allies must be respectful. As someone who witnessed Afghanistan\u2019s collapse firsthand and played a crucial role in its peace process, Matin Bek\u2019s article stands as a valuable analytical document for shaping the future of peace in Ukraine. From Kabul(Afghanistan) to Kyiv(Ukraine): Matin Bek\u2019s Analysis \u2014 Ukraine Is on the Path to Repeating Afghanistan\u2019s Fate On the eve of Ukraine\u2019s negotiations with Russia, mediated by the United States, Abdul Matin Bek, a former senior Afghan government official, has published an article in The Cipher Brief, warning that the U.S. may be repeating the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12085,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-political"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/elmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12084","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/elmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/elmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12084"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/elmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12084\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12087,"href":"https:\/\/elmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12084\/revisions\/12087"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/elmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nBek notes that during the Doha negotiations, the Taliban insisted on direct talks with the U.S., which resulted in sidelining the Afghan government and legitimizing the Taliban. He draws a parallel with Putin\u2019s refusal to engage directly with President Zelensky and his preference for negotiating with the U.S.
\n\u201cThis tactic effectively marginalizes national governments and grants legitimacy to their enemies,\u201d Bek warns.<\/p>\n
\nBek refers to Zalmay Khalilzad\u2019s public criticisms of President Ghani as a factor that demoralized Afghan leadership and contributed to state collapse. He cautions that the tone of some American officials toward Ukraine resembles this pattern.
\n\u201cAn inappropriate tone gives psychological advantage to enemies and weakens allies,\u201d Bek says.<\/p>\n
\nBek also warns that threatening to cut off military and financial aid to Ukraine\u2014rather than using such leverage to push for peace\u2014emboldens Russia and destabilizes Kyiv.
\n\u201cU.S. leverage should be used to end violence, not to escalate it,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n
\nAny peace agreement designed without Ukraine\u2019s active involvement will be unstable and unsustainable.<\/p>\n
\nUndermining allies publicly while being conciliatory toward adversaries behind closed doors breeds mistrust and is dangerous.<\/p>\n
\nHe concludes, \u201cThe world cannot afford another Kabul scenario. If the peace process in Ukraine is managed correctly, it could become a proud legacy for American diplomacy.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"